Free tool
Milestone Scenario Planner
See how much the milestone your round pays for changes the historical odds of reaching approval, what it does to risk-adjusted value, and which assumptions your result depends on. Reference values from published US data are filled in for you.
How it works
- Choose the therapeutic area, where the asset is today and the milestone this round reaches.
- See how reaching that milestone changes the chance of approval and risk-adjusted value.
- Find the assumptions that move your result, then download the chart for your deck.
Set up your scenario
Pick three things. Success rates, timing and costs fill in from reference data, and you can change any of them under Assumptions.
Preclinical uses one cross-area value in the source: a 68% chance and 31.2 months from compound synthesis to first human dosing. Every therapeutic area gets the same first step. If IND-enabling studies are already under way, open Assumptions and shorten the months and raise the chance to match where you are.
End value means the asset's net present value at approval: future net cash flows after cost of goods, launch, sales, Phase 4 commitments and tax, in September 2026 dollars. It is not peak sales or market size, so compare it with an estimate made on the same basis.
Show chart values as a table
Swipe sideways to see every column.
Assumptions behind the resultShow and editHide
Swipe sideways to see every column.
Stage costs are out-of-pocket estimates converted from 2018 to September 2026 US dollars (×1.34, US CPI-U). They exclude CMC and manufacturing, so replace them with your own budget where you have one. Costs are used only in the break-even view.
The source uses 11%, an industry cost of capital net of inflation. Success rates already carry the technical risk, so a much higher rate would partly count it twice. Early private companies also carry financing and liquidity risk, so you can raise it to test that (0–40%).
Turn this into your Milestones and The Ask slides
The Biotech Fundraising Story Kit has editable slides for what this round reaches, what evidence it will produce, what happens if a result does not support the plan, and what you are asking for. The chart above is a starting point for the Milestones slide. Build the draft yourself, then spend adviser time on the judgment calls.
Your slide-ready chart
The PNG is downloading. It was made in your browser, and nothing about your scenario was sent anywhere.
Optional: get The Decision Story Checklist
A six-page review of evidence, uncertainty, milestones and the ask. It comes with NarraFlect Insights, our occasional email on biotech fundraising and partnering: sign up in the NarraFlect Insights form, confirm your email, and the checklist download is in the confirmation email. Nothing else arrives unless you confirm, and you can unsubscribe at any time.
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